UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST PREDICTS ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN

From AP via MSNBC:

Ongoing weakness in the housing market will push the national economy to the brink of recession, but growth in other areas should put the country back on a slow road to recovery by 2009, according to an economic forecast released Wednesday.

The quarterly Anderson Forecast by the University of California at Los Angeles predicts growth in the gross domestic product of just over 1 percent for the fourth quarter of 2007 and first quarter of 2008.

Economic growth will remain “tepid” for the remainder of 2008 and return to 3 percent in 2009, said David Shulman, senior economist for the forecast.

Shulman lowered his forecast for housing starts to an annual rate of about 1 million to 1.1 million, down from a range of 1.2 million to 1.3 million.

That outlook is less optimistic than one presented Tuesday by the National Association of Realtors, which projected construction of new homes will fall to 1.4 million this year from 1.8 million last year.

Shulman also expects housing prices to plunge 10 percent to 15 percent before they start to recover, sometime in 2009.