PHILADELPHIA FED'S SURVEYS SIGNAL A RECESSION

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released results of its Survey of Professional Forecasters and Anxious Index today with both pointing toward a recession. The Survey of Professional Forecasters asks economists to predict the possibility of GDP contraction in the current quarter while the Anxious Index asks the same for the next quarter. A score of higher than 40% is considered a sign that a recession is likely. The Survey of Professional Forecasters score was 47% while the Anxious Index was 42.9%. How accurate have the surveys been in predicting recessions? Since 1968 there have been six recessions. Both surveys have predicted all six.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Survey of Professional Forecasters and Anxious Index.