PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES IN Q4

On Wednesday the Labor Department reported that productivity increased at an annualized rate of 1.8% for the fourth quarter. That compares unfavorably with the 6% gain in productivity in the third quarter, but was better than most economists had predicted and was in line with the 1.6% productivity gain for all of 2007.

From The New York Times:

Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at at High Frequency Economics, said he looked for productivity to slow further in 2008, reflecting an extremely weak economy in the first half of the year.

For the year, productivity rose by 1.6 percent, a slight rebound from a 1 percent gain in 2006 but both years were well below the average annual increases of 3.2 percent turned in from 2000 through 2004.

Productivity determines whether living standards can rise because it allows businesses to pay their workers more because of their increased output without having to raise the cost of their products, which increases inflation.

The country went through a two-decade period of stagnant increases in productivity following the oil shocks of the early 1970s. However, starting in 1995, productivity began showing bigger improvements, reflecting all of the investments that had been made in computers and other efficiency-enhancing equipment.

Economists are currently debating whether that substantial gain in productivity is now waning or whether the slowdown is just a temporary reflection of the deterioration of the overall economy.