OIL PRICE DROPS $3; GERMANS PAYING $8.00 PER GALLON FOR GAS

Crude oil prices dropped about $3.00 per barrel yesterday as the U.S. dollar strengthened a bit and traders waited to see what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at their meeting later today. Most analysts believe that a quarter-point rate cut is already factored into the oil price and that if the Federal Reserve makes no cut, oil could decline further as the U.S. dollar strengthens.

Think $3.79 per gallon for gasoline is high? Germans are paying the equivalent of roughly $8.60 per gallon for gas now.

From MSNBC:

It is an everyday lottery when it comes to fuel prices at German gas stations. Prices for regular unleaded and diesel gas bounces up and down, often changing twice on the same day. And drivers in this car-loving nation are unhappily dealing with increasing prices at the pump.

Record prices on the international oil markets have driven gas prices across Europe sky high, with a gallon of unleaded gas costing about $8.60 per gallon in Germany. (In Germany, gas is sold by the liter with one liter of unleaded fuel selling for an average of $2.29)

The high prices hit people where it counts – in the wallet.

U.S. DOLLAR AT $1.5779 PER EURO, EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER

The U.S. dollar traded at $1.5779 in late trading today and some are expecting it to fall past $1.60 if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates at the April 30th meeting. The Fed is widely expected to lower rates at least a quarter of a point and perhaps a half point or more at that meeting, or perhaps even before, in an effort to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy. So far this year, the dollar has fallen by 7.5% against the euro.

U.S. DOLLAR HITS NEW LOW VERSUS EURO

The dollar weakened further Thursday, hitting a new low of $1.5644 to the euro. In addition, Venezuela appears to be experimenting with requiring that payments for oil be made in euros instead of dollars. If this were to catch on and spread to other OPEC nations, demand for the dollar would plummet, causing accelerated weakening of the dollar and further strengthening the euro.

From Reuters:

The dollar extended losses late on Thursday, hitting fresh record lows against the euro, in selling driven by technical factors.

The euro rose to $1.5644 against the dollar for the first time since it was launched, according to Reuters data. It last traded at $1.5627.

Late on Thursday, Reuters reported that Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is requiring payment in euros in a recently opened fuel export contract, citing a trader who has purchased a cargo under the contract.

DOLLAR HITS NEW 12-YEAR LOW VERSUS YEN

The U.S. dollar hit a 12-year low versus the Japanese Yen in trading today, dropping to 99.8 yen and settling in around 100. In the past 24 hours the dollar has weakened 1.6% against the Japanese yen, which will make Japanese-manufactured goods more expensive in the U.S. when paid for with U.S. dollars. In turn, American-made goods will be less expensive to Japanese consumers who will pay in yen.

From The New York Times:

We are entering dollar crisis mode," said Derek Halpenny, currency economist at BTM-UFJ in London.

"Looking at the markets there is a complete loss of confidence and that's because the markets are concerned over the U.S. financial sector and ultimately what the (Federal Reserve) will be forced to do to support that sector," he said.

OIL SETS NEW RECORD HIGH

Oil is trading at over $103 per barrel this morning and has risen as high as $103.95.

From The New York Times:

Oil prices surged to a new record high Monday as the dollar weakened to another low against the euro.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose $1.93 to $103.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising as high as $103.95. That's higher than the price of $103.76 that many analysts believe oil hit in 1980, when adjusted for inflation into 2008 dollars.

Oil's most recent run into record territory has been driven by the greenback's slump against other world currencies. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is falling.

U.S. DOLLAR EROSION PUSHES EURO TO THE FOREFRONT

From USA Today:

Despite squeals of pain from European exporters, the strength of the euro is fast propelling Europe's single currency into a juggernaut.

Currency traders from Egyptian street hawkers to Asian central banks are looking to the euro as a better store of value as the U.S. dollar erodes. The shared 13-nation currency hit $1.4966 on Friday, another record high against the once steadfast dollar.

As well as being the world's currency of choice in central bank reserves, the dollar has long been the de facto second currency in street markets and on tourist menus around the world.

Today, market traders in Luxor — site of the ancient Egyptian city of Thebes — snub dollars in favor of euros or local currency. In Russia, shops, restaurants and hotels that once listed prices in the mighty dollar rather than the unstable ruble have increasingly pegged prices to the euro.

While these trends are unlikely to perturb currency markets, concern is growing that foreign investors may start dumping their dollar-holdings. In particular, traders are watching China's central bank for changes in its portfolio.

Most of China's $1.43 trillion reserves are in dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. Treasuries, and officials aren't happy about the U.S. currency's decline. Zhou Xiaochuan, head of China's central bank, urged U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday to boost the dollar, according to the Xinhua government news agency.

The euro — introduced to financial markets in 1999 and in notes and coins form in 2002 — has risen as a share of global official reserves from 17.9% in 1999 to 25.8% in 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the same period the dollar's share has fallen from 71% to 64.8%

WEAK DOLLAR VERSUS EURO CAUSES DECLINE IN GERMAN CAR SALES

Remember, a weak dollar causes imported foreign goods to be more expensive for those using the dollar to make purchases, while U.S.-made goods exported to other countries, in this case Germany, a user of the Euro, are less expensive to those using the Euro.

From The New York Times:

This year, the dollar was down about 6 percent against the euro, which damaged German car sales in this country. Its auto trade surplus with the United States fell 30 percent.

The declining American trade deficit for the auto industry does not mean that this country is anywhere close to reaching a balance in the sector. During the second quarter, the United States imported $1.90 in automobiles and parts for every dollar of such goods it exported. That is the lowest ratio since 1998 and is down from $2.27 in the 2006 period. It is way below the record ratio of $4.22, reached in 1989.

But it still means that it would take a 31 percent increase in American auto exports, and a similar decrease in imports, to produce a balance in auto trade. That would require a much lower dollar — and a much weaker American economy.