Q1 GDP GROWTH OF 0.6%

According to GDP data released Wednesday, the economy grew at 0.6% in the first quarter of 2008.

From TheStreet.com:

The government reported Wednesday that the U.S. economy grew at a rate of 0.6% in the first quarter of 2008, which was basically in line with expectations on Wall Street.

While GDP growth of 0.6% reflects sluggish activity in the U.S. economy as it muddles through a slowdown in the national housing market and a credit crunch on Wall Street, it also suggests that the nation did avoid recession in the first three months of the year, when many investors were predicting that a recession was underway.

OIL PRICE DROPS $3; GERMANS PAYING $8.00 PER GALLON FOR GAS

Crude oil prices dropped about $3.00 per barrel yesterday as the U.S. dollar strengthened a bit and traders waited to see what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at their meeting later today. Most analysts believe that a quarter-point rate cut is already factored into the oil price and that if the Federal Reserve makes no cut, oil could decline further as the U.S. dollar strengthens.

Think $3.79 per gallon for gasoline is high? Germans are paying the equivalent of roughly $8.60 per gallon for gas now.

From MSNBC:

It is an everyday lottery when it comes to fuel prices at German gas stations. Prices for regular unleaded and diesel gas bounces up and down, often changing twice on the same day. And drivers in this car-loving nation are unhappily dealing with increasing prices at the pump.

Record prices on the international oil markets have driven gas prices across Europe sky high, with a gallon of unleaded gas costing about $8.60 per gallon in Germany. (In Germany, gas is sold by the liter with one liter of unleaded fuel selling for an average of $2.29)

The high prices hit people where it counts – in the wallet.

IS THE UNITED STATES IN A RECESSION? IF SO, HOW SEVERE WILL IT BE?

Two-thirds of economists surveyed by USA Today believe the U.S. is in a recession currently and 79% believe the U.S. will enter a recessionary period at some point in 2008. Most of these economists predict a short, shallow recession. On the other hand, Warren Buffett is on record as saying the U.S. is already in a recession and yesterday stated that "the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think."

USA Today - ECONOMISTS SAY U.S. IS IN A RECESSION
USA Today - BUFFETT: ECONOMY IN A RECESSION, WILL BE WORSE THAN FEARED

STARBUCKS SLASHES PROFIT OUTLOOK

Starbucks shares fell 12% yesterday when it was announced that the company cut its quarterly and 2008 profit outlook.

From USA Today:

Schultz said in a statement that "the current economic environment is the weakest in our company's history, marked by lower home values, and rising costs for energy, food and other products that are directly impacting our customers."

Fewer customers at U.S. stores triggered a mid-single-digit decline in sales at established stores, called comparable store sales. California and Florida markets, which account for about one-third of its U.S. retail revenue, have been hard hit by the downturn in the U.S. housing market, it added.

As a result, Starbucks reported preliminary second-quarter earnings of 15 cents per share, behind Wall Street analysts' average target of 21 cents per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Starbucks estimated that costs associated with turnaround efforts and store closures lowered earnings by 3 cents per share in the second quarter, which ended March 30.

Given the continued weakness in the U.S. economy, Starbucks warned that fiscal 2008 earnings per share would be "somewhat lower" than the 87 cents it reported in fiscal 2007, while analysts were looking for a profit of 97 cents per share for the current fiscal year.

"At this time, the company is not providing a more precise expectation due to lack of visibility into near-term economic conditions," Starbucks said in a statement.

UAL POSTS HUGE Q1 LOSS

The parent company of United Airlines posted a loss of $537 million for the first quarter citing a 51% increase in fuel costs as a major reason for the loss.

From The New York Times:

United, based in Chicago, plans to reduce employment by 1,100 by the end of the year, as airlines begin a new round of layoffs. United increased the number of planes it plans to shed to 30, from an earlier estimate of 15 to 20, in hopes of constraining capacity and driving fares up further.

At United, first-quarter fares rose more than 11 percent over the year-ago period, as the carrier reduced domestic capacity by about 6 percent. That sent revenue up 7.7 percent to $4.71 billion for the quarter.

But a $534 million increase in fuel costs, to $1.58 billion for the quarter, led to a loss. The company has $2.9 billion of unrestricted cash and short-term investments, a slimmer cushion than the $3.6 billion it held Dec. 31, 2007.

Of the planned employee cuts, 500 would be managers and 600 union-represented workers, Glenn Tilton, United’s chief executive, said in a recorded message to his workers. “In this extraordinary environment, we recognize the pace of change needs to accelerate,” he said.

United hopes to merge with another airline — Continental Airlines and US Airways are leading candidates — in order to compete against the proposed combination of Delta Air Lines and Northwest Airlines. Tuesday, in his message to workers, Mr. Tilton called industry consolidation “one of the changes required to address the gap between where we stand today and profitability and sustainability.”

GAS PRICES AT INFLATION-ADJUSTED HIGH

The price for a gallon of gasoline averaged $3.508, surpassing the inflation-adjusted high of $3.413 of 1981.

From USA Today:

The average price for regular gasoline across the USA was a record $3.508 a gallon Monday, eclipsing the inflation-adjusted peak of $3.413 set in March 1981, when the average was $1.417, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Separately, AAA and the Oil Price Information Service reported a U.S. average of $3.503 Monday, up 1.2 cents overnight and first time above $3.50.

The two surveys emphasize what Americans already know: However it's measured, gasoline is more expensive than it's ever been. That hurts.

OIL TOPS $115 AS U.S. DOLLAR NEARS $1.60 PER EURO

Oil traded at over $115 per barrel yesterday and early today as the U.S. dollar sank to nearly $1.60 per euro. Some are $3.80 per gallon retail for gasoline in the near future.

From AP via MSNBC:

Crude oil futures fluctuated Thursday after moving past $115 per barrel and hitting an all-time high in overnight electronic trading on a weaker dollar and supply concerns.

Overall, crude prices have jumped more than 4 percent this week, in part due to the falling dollar, as well as a host of supply and demand concerns in the U.S. and abroad.

The combination of all these factors will push oil prices even higher in coming weeks, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Florida, trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

"I think we're going at least to $125 (per barrel)," Cordier said. "That'll probably translate to about $3.80 (a gallon for gasoline) at the pump."

RETAILERS TAKING STEPS TO AVOID BANKRUPTCY

Sharper Image and Levitz Furniture have declared bankruptcy recently and many more retailers such as Zales, Foot Locker, and Ann Taylor are taking steps to try to avoid it.

From The New York Times:

The consumer spending slump and tightening credit markets are unleashing a widening wave of bankruptcies in American retailing, prompting thousands of store closings that are expected to remake suburban malls and downtown shopping districts across the country.

Since last fall, eight mostly midsize chains — as diverse as the furniture store Levitz and the electronics seller Sharper Image — have filed for bankruptcy protection as they staggered under mounting debt and declining sales.

But the troubles are quickly spreading to bigger national companies, like Linens ‘n Things, the bedding and furniture retailer with 500 stores in 47 states. It may file for bankruptcy as early as this week, according to people briefed on the matter.

Even retailers that can avoid bankruptcy are shutting down stores to preserve cash through what could be a long economic downturn. Over the next year, Foot Locker said it would close 140 stores, Ann Taylor will start to shutter 117, and the jeweler Zales will close 100.

Whether more chains file for bankruptcy or not, it will be hard to miss the impact of the industry’s troubles in the nation’s malls.

J. C. Penney, Lowe’s and Office Depot are scaling back or delaying expansion. Office Depot had planned to open 150 stores this year; now it will open 75.

The International Council of Shopping Centers, a trade group, estimates there will be 5,770 store closings in 2008, up 25 percent from 2007, when there were 4,603.

Charming Shoppes, which owns the women’s clothing retailers Lane Bryant and Fashion Bug, is closing at least 150 stores. Wilsons the Leather Experts will close 158. And Pacific Sunwear is shutting a 153-store chain called Demo.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FOR MARCH HITS 5.1%

Employers cut 80,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate climbed to 5.1%, the highest rate since the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was felt in September 2005. This is the third consecutive month of job losses (the fourth if you only include private non-governmental jobs). So far this year 232,000 jobs have been lost.

From The New York Times:

The nation’s employers eliminated tens of thousands of jobs for the third month in a row, the government reported Friday, and top Democrats immediately called for new measures to help suffering American workers.

After the early-morning report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics that 80,000 jobs had disappeared in March, the speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, said she would propose a second economic stimulus package. Hers would supplement the $150 billion measure that includes the mailing of tax rebates to millions of Americans beginning next month.

BERNANKE TAKES GRIM VIEW ON ECONOMIC GROWTH POSSIBILITIES

In testimony this morning before a Congressional committee, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke stated that economic growth was likely to be minimal and that contraction of the economy was possible in the first half of the year. Mr. Bernanke's comments now seem to be in line with those of most reputable economists, who for some time have been stating that it is not only possible, but likely that the United States GDP would contract in the first half of the year. If this does happen, it would become an official recession.

From The New York Times:

Over all, Mr. Bernanke said, “It now appears likely that real gross domestic product will not grow much, if at all, over the first half of 2008 and could even contract slightly.”

While he said growth would likely recover in the second half of the year, and return to a “sustainable pace” in 2009, he warned that the current turbulence made the economic outlook difficult to predict.

“The uncertainty attending this forecast is quite high and the risks remain to the downside,” he said.

FEBRUARY IS ANOTHER BAD MONTH FOR CONSUMER SPENDING

The Commerce Department reported this morning that consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of total economic activity, was up 0.1% in February. When adjusted for inflation, consumer spending was flat. This would seem to lend more credibility to the claim that the United States is entering into a recession, as many economists have been saying recently.

FEBRUARY CONSUMER INFLATION IS FLAT

The Consumer Price Index came in flat this morning, showing no change in consumer prices from January through February. According to The New York Times, economists had expected an increase of 0.3%.

Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, also came in unchanged.

From AP via The New York Times:

Consumer inflation, which had been pushing relentlessly higher, posted its mildest reading in six months in February as the costs of energy and food moderated. The relief was expected to be short-lived, given that energy prices have resumed their upward climb.

The better-than-expected February inflation reading will likely be reversed in coming months, considering the big surge in energy prices in recent weeks. Crude oil hit a record high this week above $110 per barrel and gasoline pump prices jumped to a national record of $3.267.

63,000 JOBS LOST IN FEBRUARY

The February jobs report showed that 63,000 jobs were cut in February, yet the unemployment report showed that the unemployment report improved from 4.9% to 4.8%. How? Because the unemployment report does not count anyone who quits looking for work and a good many people who are unemployed have quit looking in this difficult job market.

From USA Today:

Employers cut jobs for a second month in February while the unemployment rate fell as more people quit looking for work in the weakening job market, the government said Friday in a report that led to further calls of a 2008 recession.

From The New York Times:

The worst fears of consumers, investors and Washington officials were confirmed on Friday, as deepening paralysis on Wall Street collided with stark new evidence of falling employment and a likely recession.

In a report that was far worse than most analysts had expected, the Labor Department estimated that the nation lost 63,000 jobs in February. It was the second consecutive monthly decline, and the third straight drop for private-sector jobs.

Though monthly payroll data are notoriously volatile and subject to revision, the jobs report was so bleak that many of the few remaining optimists on Wall Street threw in the towel and conceded that the United States was already in a recession.

BERNANKE ASKS BANKS TO FORGIVE PORTION OF MORTGAGES

From Bloomberg:

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, battling the worst housing recession in a quarter century, urged lenders to forgive portions of mortgages for more borrowers whose home values have declined.

``Efforts by both government and private-sector entities to reduce unnecessary foreclosures are helping, but more can, and should, be done,'' Bernanke said in a speech in Orlando, Florida today. ``Principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure.''

WARREN BUFFETT SAYS U.S. IS IN A RECESSION

Although the technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative growth in GDP, so it is not yet possible to officially declare that we are in a recession, billionaire businessman Warren Buffett told CNBC that the United States is in a recession "by any common-sense definition."

From USA Today:

Billionaire Warren Buffett says the U.S. economy is essentially in a recession, even if it hasn't met the technical definition yet.

Buffett said Monday on CNBC-TV that reports he gets from the retail businesses owned by his holding company, Berkshire Hathaway, show a significant slowdown in purchases.

ISM REPORT SHOWS DECLINE

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) issued its February report that showed that the index of national factory activity declined from 50.7 in January to 48.3 in February. A reading below 50 indicates contraction and is a negative sign.

MORE GLOOMY ECONOMIC REPORTS ISSUED FRIDAY

Consumer spending after adjusting for inflation was flat in January for the second consecutive month. And, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers were the worst since 1992.

From USA Today:

The Commerce Department said consumer spending posted a 0.4% rise in January. However, all that gain came from a surge in inflation. Taking away the effect of higher rices, spending showed no gain in January or December.

Consumer sentiment dropped to a 16-year low in February on worries about declining incomes and rising unemployment, the Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed.

Adding to the grim view, consumer expectations for the future also hit a 16-year low, while worries about their ability to makes ends meet and the overall economy were as bad as they have been in decades, the survey said.

PRODUCER PRICES UP 1% IN JANUARY

The Producer Price Index (PPI) was up a whopping 1.0% in January due to rising energy, food, and medicine prices. The gain was more than double what economists had been expecting.

From USA Today:

Producer prices were up 7.4% from January of last year, the steepest climb since October 1981, the Labor Department said.

The worse-than-expected performance is certain to capture attention at the Federal Reserve. Fed officials have chosen to combat a threatened recession by aggressively cutting interest rates, believing that they have room to do so because weak economic growth will keep a lid on prices.

WHERE DOES YOUR CANDIDATE STAND ON ECONOMIC ISSUES?

Do you know where the presidential candidate you support stands regarding the mortgage mess, taxes, and jobs?

Which candidate has proposed a 5-year freeze on the adjustment of rates for adjustable rate mortgages?

Which candidate has proposed spending $10 billion to help those who are about to lose their homes to foreclosure?

Which candidate would abolish the IRS, eliminate incomes taxes, and establish a 23% national sales tax?

Which candidate would renew the Bush tax cuts and further cut taxes for corporations?

Which candidates would raise income taxes on individuals making $250,000+?

Find the answers to these questions and more by viewing this NBC News video.

HOME PRICES DROP FOR 5TH STRAIGHT MONTH

More negative news from the housing market came out today in the home sales and prices report issued by the National Association of Realtors this morning.

From Reuters via USA Today:

The pace of existing home sales fell in January to a 4.89 million unit annual rate, lowest level in nearly a decade, while prices slid and inventories swelled, the National Association of Realtors said Monday.

The median price of a single-family home — half sold for more, half for less — slid below $200,000 to $198,700 the report says.

The inventory of homes for sale rose 5.5% to 4.19 million units at the end of January, which represents about 10.3 months' supply at the current sales pace. The national median home price fell 4.6% from a year ago to $201,100.

The drop in sales and the fifth straight decline in prices underscored the continued pressure facing housing, which is struggling to emerge from its worst slump in a quarter-century.