OIL PRICE DROPS $3; GERMANS PAYING $8.00 PER GALLON FOR GAS

Crude oil prices dropped about $3.00 per barrel yesterday as the U.S. dollar strengthened a bit and traders waited to see what the Federal Reserve will do with interest rates at their meeting later today. Most analysts believe that a quarter-point rate cut is already factored into the oil price and that if the Federal Reserve makes no cut, oil could decline further as the U.S. dollar strengthens.

Think $3.79 per gallon for gasoline is high? Germans are paying the equivalent of roughly $8.60 per gallon for gas now.

From MSNBC:

It is an everyday lottery when it comes to fuel prices at German gas stations. Prices for regular unleaded and diesel gas bounces up and down, often changing twice on the same day. And drivers in this car-loving nation are unhappily dealing with increasing prices at the pump.

Record prices on the international oil markets have driven gas prices across Europe sky high, with a gallon of unleaded gas costing about $8.60 per gallon in Germany. (In Germany, gas is sold by the liter with one liter of unleaded fuel selling for an average of $2.29)

The high prices hit people where it counts – in the wallet.

OIL TOPS $115 AS U.S. DOLLAR NEARS $1.60 PER EURO

Oil traded at over $115 per barrel yesterday and early today as the U.S. dollar sank to nearly $1.60 per euro. Some are $3.80 per gallon retail for gasoline in the near future.

From AP via MSNBC:

Crude oil futures fluctuated Thursday after moving past $115 per barrel and hitting an all-time high in overnight electronic trading on a weaker dollar and supply concerns.

Overall, crude prices have jumped more than 4 percent this week, in part due to the falling dollar, as well as a host of supply and demand concerns in the U.S. and abroad.

The combination of all these factors will push oil prices even higher in coming weeks, said James Cordier, president of Tampa, Florida, trading firms Liberty Trading Group and OptionSellers.com.

"I think we're going at least to $125 (per barrel)," Cordier said. "That'll probably translate to about $3.80 (a gallon for gasoline) at the pump."

IRANIAN PRESIDENT AHMADINEJAD URGES OPEC TO QUIT PRICING OIL IN U.S. DOLLARS

Currently, oil sold by OPEC nations and traded globally is priced in U.S. dollars. President Ahmadinejad (along with Venezuela's Hugo Chavez) has urged OPEC to quit pricing oil in dollars. If another currency was used instead of the dollar, demand for dollars would decline, leading to further weakening of the already very weak U.S. dollar.

From AP via MSNBC:

According to the Iranian government's Web site, Ahmadinejad told OPEC Secretary General Abdalla Salem el-Badri the cartel "should establish a joint bank as well as having joint currency."

Oil is priced in U.S. dollars on the world market, and the currency's depreciation has concerned producers because it has contributed to rising crude prices and eroded the value of their dollar reserves.

Iran has repeatedly urged OPEC members to shift sales away from dollar. But Iran's proposal to trade oil in a basket of currencies is not supported by enough OPEC members, which include staunch U.S. allies such as leading producer Saudi Arabia.

U.S. DOLLAR AT $1.5779 PER EURO, EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER

The U.S. dollar traded at $1.5779 in late trading today and some are expecting it to fall past $1.60 if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates at the April 30th meeting. The Fed is widely expected to lower rates at least a quarter of a point and perhaps a half point or more at that meeting, or perhaps even before, in an effort to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy. So far this year, the dollar has fallen by 7.5% against the euro.

U.S. DOLLAR HITS NEW LOW VERSUS EURO

The dollar weakened further Thursday, hitting a new low of $1.5644 to the euro. In addition, Venezuela appears to be experimenting with requiring that payments for oil be made in euros instead of dollars. If this were to catch on and spread to other OPEC nations, demand for the dollar would plummet, causing accelerated weakening of the dollar and further strengthening the euro.

From Reuters:

The dollar extended losses late on Thursday, hitting fresh record lows against the euro, in selling driven by technical factors.

The euro rose to $1.5644 against the dollar for the first time since it was launched, according to Reuters data. It last traded at $1.5627.

Late on Thursday, Reuters reported that Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA is requiring payment in euros in a recently opened fuel export contract, citing a trader who has purchased a cargo under the contract.

DOLLAR HITS NEW 12-YEAR LOW VERSUS YEN

The U.S. dollar hit a 12-year low versus the Japanese Yen in trading today, dropping to 99.8 yen and settling in around 100. In the past 24 hours the dollar has weakened 1.6% against the Japanese yen, which will make Japanese-manufactured goods more expensive in the U.S. when paid for with U.S. dollars. In turn, American-made goods will be less expensive to Japanese consumers who will pay in yen.

From The New York Times:

We are entering dollar crisis mode," said Derek Halpenny, currency economist at BTM-UFJ in London.

"Looking at the markets there is a complete loss of confidence and that's because the markets are concerned over the U.S. financial sector and ultimately what the (Federal Reserve) will be forced to do to support that sector," he said.

OIL SETS NEW RECORD HIGH

Oil is trading at over $103 per barrel this morning and has risen as high as $103.95.

From The New York Times:

Oil prices surged to a new record high Monday as the dollar weakened to another low against the euro.

Light, sweet crude for April delivery rose $1.93 to $103.77 on the New York Mercantile Exchange after earlier rising as high as $103.95. That's higher than the price of $103.76 that many analysts believe oil hit in 1980, when adjusted for inflation into 2008 dollars.

Oil's most recent run into record territory has been driven by the greenback's slump against other world currencies. Crude futures offer a hedge against a falling dollar, and oil futures bought and sold in dollars are more attractive to foreign investors when the dollar is falling.

TRADE DEFICIT FALLS IN 2007

After five consecutive years of record trade deficits, the deficit shrank 6% in 2007.

From the Commerce Department's Press Release at the Bureau of Economic Analysis:

For 2007, exports of $1,621.8 billion and imports of $2,333.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $711.6 billion, $46.9 billion less than the 2006 deficit of $758.5 billion. For goods, exports were $1,149.3 billion and imports were $1,964.9 billion, resulting in a goods deficit of $815.6 billion, $22.7 billion less than the 2006 deficit of $838.3 billion. For services, exports were $472.5 billion and imports were $368.5 billion, resulting in a services surplus of $104.0 billion, $24.2 billion more than the 2006 surplusof $79.7 billion.

The goods and services deficit was $711.6 billion in 2007, down from $758.5 billion in 2006. As a percentage of U.S. gross domestic product, the goods and services deficit was 5.1 percent in 2007, down from 5.7 percent in 2006.

BEIKOKU BANARE = QUITTING AMERICA

From The New York Times:

Many in Japan are starting to speak of “quitting America,” but they are not talking about a rise in anti-American political fervor. Rather, they mean a move away from American investments that is altering global capital flows and helping to weaken the dollar.

Japanese individuals are diverting more and more of that money away from the United States and the dollar and into higher-yielding global investments, ranging from high-interest Australian government bonds to shares in fast-growing Indian construction companies. Partly this “quitting America” — called beikoku banare in Japanese — reflects an increasing sophistication of Japan’s investors, who embraced mutual funds only a decade ago and are still learning to diversify. But it also offers one more sign that the world does not depend as much on the American economy as it once did.

In October alone, Japanese individuals pulled 33.9 billion yen, or about $300 million, out of mutual funds that invested solely in North American stocks and bonds, according to Daiwa Fund. In the same month, it said, Japanese individuals put 175.2 billion yen, or $1.6 billion, into funds investing in stocks and bonds in emerging countries.

In the last 12 months, Japanese individuals invested 1.97 trillion yen, or $17.5 billion, into emerging market mutual funds, according to Daiwa Fund, and during the same period, they removed 447 billion yen, or $4 billion, from North America-only mutual funds.

To be sure, some analysts caution that the popularity of emerging markets may prove to be a fad, especially if stock markets in China or India start falling as quickly as they rose. Analysts also say the dollar’s greater familiarity gives it an enduring appeal among many Japanese, who may return once the United States mortgage problems subside.

Some analysts predicted the eventual revival of short-term currency trading between the dollar and the yen, which had been an important support for the dollar’s value before August’s market turmoil.

“A lot of dollar-buyers are just sidelined now,” said Tohru Sasaki, chief exchange strategist in the Tokyo office of JPMorgan Chase Bank. “They’ll be back once currency markets settle down.”

U.S. DOLLAR EROSION PUSHES EURO TO THE FOREFRONT

From USA Today:

Despite squeals of pain from European exporters, the strength of the euro is fast propelling Europe's single currency into a juggernaut.

Currency traders from Egyptian street hawkers to Asian central banks are looking to the euro as a better store of value as the U.S. dollar erodes. The shared 13-nation currency hit $1.4966 on Friday, another record high against the once steadfast dollar.

As well as being the world's currency of choice in central bank reserves, the dollar has long been the de facto second currency in street markets and on tourist menus around the world.

Today, market traders in Luxor — site of the ancient Egyptian city of Thebes — snub dollars in favor of euros or local currency. In Russia, shops, restaurants and hotels that once listed prices in the mighty dollar rather than the unstable ruble have increasingly pegged prices to the euro.

While these trends are unlikely to perturb currency markets, concern is growing that foreign investors may start dumping their dollar-holdings. In particular, traders are watching China's central bank for changes in its portfolio.

Most of China's $1.43 trillion reserves are in dollar-denominated assets such as U.S. Treasuries, and officials aren't happy about the U.S. currency's decline. Zhou Xiaochuan, head of China's central bank, urged U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson on Thursday to boost the dollar, according to the Xinhua government news agency.

The euro — introduced to financial markets in 1999 and in notes and coins form in 2002 — has risen as a share of global official reserves from 17.9% in 1999 to 25.8% in 2006, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the same period the dollar's share has fallen from 71% to 64.8%

EUROPEANS FLOCK TO U.S. FOR CHRISTMAS SHOPPING

From USA Today:

Record numbers of Europeans are flocking to New York this fall — prime holiday shopping season — as the dollar sinks to new lows against the euro and British pound.

New York expects roughly 1 million western Europeans this month and December, 5% more than last year, says George Fertitta, CEO of tourism agency NYC & Co. Helping to boost Big Apple tourism: killer deals on merchandise because of an exchange rate that favors euros and pounds.

"A new class of Europeans are coming to America totally because of currency," says George Malkemus, president of luxury shoe retailer Manolo Blahnik USA.

Malkemus says he's selling more shoes from his Manhattan store than ever to Europeans despite there also being a London store. Shoppers can pay $600 for a pair of shoes that in London would cost the equivalent of $823.

Last week, the dollar sank to its lowest level ever against the euro, and to its lowest level against the pound in 26 years. One euro is worth $1.47. One pound is worth $2.06.

Foreigners also are snapping up U.S. real estate and could target U.S. companies if the dollar continues to erode, says Omer Esiner, a market analyst at currency trader Ruesch International.

SOME EUROPEANS FEAR POSSIBLE DOWNSIDE OF A STRONG EURO

From The New York Times:

Fears of an abrupt economic slowdown in Europe deepened on Friday, after the release of weaker-than-expected data and another record in the euro’s relentless rise against the dollar.

Europe’s stampeding currency prompted a warning from the plane maker Airbus that it might have to cut costs more deeply than expected to restore its troubled operations to financial health.

“If the euro remained durably at $1.45, that would mean we have to find 1 billion euros in additional savings,” Fabrice Brégier, the chief operating officer, said in an interview with a French radio station. The euro briefly traded at $1.41 on Friday morning before falling back slightly. It was at $1.4091 in late trading in New York.

Most European exporters have weathered the rally without complaint, having cut costs and hedged their exposure, either financially or by moving production to countries that do not use the euro.

But a noisy minority is starting to agitate, and political leaders, notably in France, have picked up their concerns, lobbying the European Central Bank to take steps to stem the euro’s appreciation.

“We hope the E.C.B., at its meeting in October, will examine the consequences and take appropriate action,” the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, said during a visit to China on Friday.

Airbus is particularly vulnerable because it earns all its revenue in dollars and incurs about half of its operating costs in euros. That puts it at a big disadvantage to its American rival, Boeing.

Under its existing plan, Airbus plans to cut 2 billion euros ($2.8 billion) a year in costs by 2010, through the sale of several factories and the elimination of 10,000 jobs. In his radio interview, Mr. Brégier said the cost-cutting plan was predicated on a euro exchange rate of $1.35.

CANADIAN LOONIE EQUAL TO U.S. DOLLAR

From CNNMoney.com:

The Canadian dollar reached parity with the U.S. dollar on Thursday for the first time since November 1976.

Known as the loonie because of the bird pictured on the one-dollar coin, the Canadian dollar has been gaining ground on its American counterpart since hitting an all-time low of 61.79 U.S. cents on Jan. 21, 2002.

This week the loonie rose sharply against its U.S. counterpart after the Federal Reserve announced a dramatic half-point cut in its benchmark interest rates. The Bank of Canada, meanwhile, has kept its equivalent rates stable.

As a result, the spread between U.S. and Canadian interest rates widened, making Canada a more attractive place for German, Japanese, American and other foreign investors to put their money.

"Canadians are getting a lot richer relative to Americans. The parity exchange rate is just one example of that," said Jeff Rubin, Chief Economist and Strategist at CIBC World Markets.

"It really reflects the rise of the resource economy in Canada and the rise of western Canada and the decline of the manufacturing sector and the manufacturing heartland of Canada in Ontario," Rubin said.

"The Canadian economy that once use to be the sleepy little resource backwater of the North American economy, is certainly turning the tables on its big brother in a hurry," Rubin said.

The high (Canadian) dollar will hurt Canadian manufacturers who sell goods in the U.S. Canadian Auto Workers economist Jim Stanford warned that the sector, largely based in Ontario, will lose hundreds of thousands more jobs if the dollar remains at current levels.

OIL TOPS $82 PER BARREL

You can check the current price by clicking here.

From USA Today:

Oil futures rose to records Tuesday after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a larger-than-expected half percentage point, raising market hopes that economic growth will accelerate and lift demand even as crude oil and gasoline inventories are tight.

A barrel of crude surged to a new trading high of $81.90 on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the moments immediately after the Fed's decision.

Investors had already priced a quarter-point cut in the benchmark federal funds rate into the market, said Brad Samples, a commodities analyst at Summit Energy Services in Louisville The half-point cut spurred even more buying.

Moreover, many analysts see a weaker dollar as a natural side effect of lower rates, and that could promote buying of oil contracts by foreign investors.

"Lower interest rates have the unintended consequence of raising oil prices if the dollar declines relative to other currencies," said Larry Chorn, chief economist at Platts, the energy research arm of McGraw-Hill, in a statement.

"Seen through a euro or yen prism, nominal (New York Mercantile Exchange crude) prices have yet to reach their 2006 highs," said Antoine Halff, head of energy research at Fimat USA, in a research note.

IS THE U.S. DOLLAR IN SERIOUS TROUBLE?

From the International Herald Tribune:

Finance ministers and central bankers have long fretted that at some point, the rest of the world would lose its willingness to finance the United States' proclivity to consume far more than it produces - and that a potentially disastrous free-fall in the dollar's value would result.

But for longer than most economists would have been willing to predict a decade ago, the world has been a willing partner in American excess - until a new and home-grown financial crisis this summer rattled confidence in the country, the world's largest economy.

On Thursday, the dollar briefly fell to another low against the euro of $1.3927, as a slow decline that has been under way for months picked up steam this past week.

"This is all pointing to a greatly increased risk of a fast unwinding of the U.S. current account deficit and a serious decline of the dollar," said Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund and an expert on exchange rates. "We could finally see the big kahuna hit."

So long as Americans buy more than they earn from exports - and they did, creating a current account deficit of $850 billion last year - the rest of the world financed the binge by bringing dollars into the United States for investment in stocks, bonds, real estate or other assets, thereby preserving demand for the dollar.

While most economists just a few months ago would have dismissed the prospect of a dollar collapse outright, they now are debating the possibility that something on par with the dollar debacle of the 1970s might just happen again.

When a currency collapses, the central bank can push up interest rates to attract needed investment, but strangle the economy in the process. Alternatively, it can let the currency fall and watch prices of imports - and eventually competing domestic goods - rise sharply.

Double-digit inflation resulted in the 1970s and only a global recession brought it to an end.

The European Central Bank put off an interest rate increase it had planned for September, but is still inclined to tighten credit at least one more time by the end of this year. By contrast, the U.S. Federal Reserve has hinted at a rate cut at its meeting next Tuesday - a step that would diminish the appeal of dollar-denominated assets, almost certainly sending the dollar lower.

Pressed to make an educated guess, most economists opt for calm, believing the dollar is unlikely to go into a tailspin even as they mark up the odds of one.

The major holders of dollars - notably the Chinese, with their $1.3 trillion in currency reserves - have little incentive to see the dollar weaken, and their support provides the dollar with a bulwark of strength. And since investors need to stay diversified, and U.S. markets are deep and liquid, abandoning the dollar wholesale is hardly a realistic option.

"Rather than a precipitous decline, we are probably be looking at a move steadily lower," said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York in London.

WEAK DOLLAR VERSUS EURO CAUSES DECLINE IN GERMAN CAR SALES

Remember, a weak dollar causes imported foreign goods to be more expensive for those using the dollar to make purchases, while U.S.-made goods exported to other countries, in this case Germany, a user of the Euro, are less expensive to those using the Euro.

From The New York Times:

This year, the dollar was down about 6 percent against the euro, which damaged German car sales in this country. Its auto trade surplus with the United States fell 30 percent.

The declining American trade deficit for the auto industry does not mean that this country is anywhere close to reaching a balance in the sector. During the second quarter, the United States imported $1.90 in automobiles and parts for every dollar of such goods it exported. That is the lowest ratio since 1998 and is down from $2.27 in the 2006 period. It is way below the record ratio of $4.22, reached in 1989.

But it still means that it would take a 31 percent increase in American auto exports, and a similar decrease in imports, to produce a balance in auto trade. That would require a much lower dollar — and a much weaker American economy.